Each NFL team uses just one quarterback per game (ideally), and the incidence of producing one of the best eight games allowed by a defense is less difficult than the other fantasy football positions that use several players in the same position per game.
Below shows how often a player logged the best game allowed by a defense (QB1), one of the four best performances allowed (top 4), or one of the best eight performances (top 8). With 17 games played, a top-eight game is “above average” among the best quarterbacks from each opponent. Notable, too, is that players face only 14 teams per year, three division mates are played twice and cannot give them more than one “QB1.”
The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.
Better than average
Running backs | Wide receivers | Tight ends
Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a quarterback once the schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other quarterbacks that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2024 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.
It’s important that a fantasy quarterback log at least nine instances of a top-eight game since that means most of their starts resulted in an above average game against what that defense allowed last year. Lamar Jackson was the clear winner among his peers, logging as may top-four performances as any other quarterback had in just top-eight games. Joe Burrow also excelled in this metric after his career season. Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy all fared very well in the metric, playing better than most of the other quarterbacks when they faced a particular defense.
Mayfield and Daniels have bought a higher draft slot for 2025, but Sam Darnold and even Brock Purdy are in changing situations and drafters are not buying into them as much this summer.
Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love disappointed, and Mahomes failing to produce any top game against an NFL defense shows how he’s declined in production.
Of the 32 available QB1 performances against NFL defenses, only seven quarterbacks were able to record more than two. Again, each player goes against three interdivisional opponents twice, so there are only 14 games against a unique opponent for the season.
Jared Goff was the most surprising, blowing up in three games and yet tied for only 10th in the metric.
